Originally published on: November 28, 2024
Bitcoin is gearing up for its biggest monthly options expiry since 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion anticipated on Nov. 29.
This event poses a crucial opportunity for bulls to propel Bitcoin’s price above the coveted $100,000 mark. It is essential to analyze the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire to understand the potential outcome for BTC’s price.
Amid growing investor caution, illustrated by the struggle of the S&P 500 to maintain levels above 6,000 and the declining US five-year Treasury yield, investors are turning to the relative safety of government bonds, even with lower returns.
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown resilience with a 5% rebound from its recent low, signaling confidence among investors. Positive sentiment also stems from the 34% gains Bitcoin has seen over the last month.
Experts predict that US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation could exceed 3%, especially if import tariffs are imposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Analysts at Barclays echoed similar sentiments regarding the potential impact on the market.
Currently, call options for Nov. 29 hold a total notional value of $7.4 billion, surpassing put options by 19%. While only a small percentage of call options target over $100,000, the majority of put options are unlikely to reach this level, reducing their notional value significantly.
The future of Bitcoin’s price will depend on various factors, with the bulls aiming to push it past $100,000 post-expiry. The scenarios for the Deribit exchange offer insight into potential outcomes based on current trends.
While bears may try to drive the price below $90,000, Bitcoin’s resilience suggests that a surge past $100,000 could be on the horizon.
Remember, this article does not offer investment advice. All trading decisions carry risks, so conduct thorough research before making any choices.
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